The article from Manila Bulletin discusses the increasing likelihood of an El Niño event developing in the Philippines between June and August 2026, as warned by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Most climate models indicate a 92% probability of El Niño emergence, potentially leading to extreme weather, including heavier early rains transitioning to drier conditions later in the year. PAGASA specialist Joey Figuracion mentioned that while the initial phase of El Niño may be weak, it is expected to strengthen significantly by the end of the year, potentially becoming very strong by early 2027. This heightened intensity may increase vulnerability to its impacts. Additionally, the early phase could overlap with the southwest monsoon season.
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