Heat extremes are the leading weather-related cause of death in the U.S., prompting research to enhance prediction methods. A study in the Journal of Geophysical Research links increased summer heat waves in the Great Plains to a larger-than-normal tropical Atlantic warm pool, which affects atmospheric circulation patterns and creates a “heat dome.” This results in less cloud cover, enhanced warming, and more heat waves.
The Great Plains relies on soil moisture influenced by the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), which is weaker during years with a large warm pool, leading to less precipitation and increased heat wave occurrences. Understanding these mechanisms is vital for improving extreme heat event predictions, which currently can only be made a week or two in advance, while related sea surface temperature anomalies can be forecast months ahead. This research aims to aid emergency preparedness and public health strategies.
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