A recent study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters indicates that extreme El Niño events may become the norm due to ongoing global warming, potentially reaching 2.9 ºC above pre-industrial levels by 2100. El Niño is marked by increased sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and altered atmospheric circulation, impacting global climate patterns. If warming reaches 3.7ºC, it is projected that 90% of future El Niño events will be extreme, akin to the devastating 1997/1998 event, which caused significant loss of life and economic damage. The study used a climate model to show an increase in the frequency and intensity of El Niño events, predicting up to 26 occurrences per century at higher warming levels. The researchers argue that El Niño might serve as a tipping point in the climate system, leading to lasting changes in its pattern.
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