The study area spans 78,000 km² between 68–71°N and 20–26°E, featuring diverse climates from wet maritime to dry continental, with a landscape shaped by past glaciations. Permafrost predominantly exists in a sporadic, shallow form, allowing for rapid thermal responses to climate change. The research focuses on three cryogenic land surface processes (LSP)—cryoturbation, solifluction, and nivation—through data collected from 2,917 sites, combining in-situ and remote sensing methods.
The study utilized high-resolution aerial photography and Landsat OLI 8 images to assess LSP activity and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Above-ground biomass (AGB) reference data were derived from two regions, totaling 433 sites, focusing on arctic and alpine environments. Statistical models, particularly Generalized Least Squares and Boosted Regression Trees, were employed to analyze AGB in relation to environmental factors such as climate, topography, and soil predictors.
Climate change scenarios were modeled to predict future AGB responses by adjusting temperature and precipitation data. The study utilized advanced statistical modeling techniques to predict future LSP distributions and AGB across the region under various warming scenarios. Overall, the findings underscore the impact of climate on vegetation dynamics and the importance of LSP in modeling these changes. Through rigorous spatial modeling, the study provides insights into potential future ecological transformations in sensitive high-latitude ecosystems.
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