A new study in Geophysical Research Letters reveals that climate change is causing some regions to swing between drought and heavy rainfall, a phenomenon likened to an "undulating seesaw." The research, led by Xiaogang He, found a significant link between these extreme weather events, with approximately 11% of global droughts followed by heavy rain within three months. Areas like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, and Brazil show over 25% occurrences of this pattern, especially in mid-latitude regions with high poverty rates.
The study’s findings highlight the compounding impacts of these extremes on vulnerable populations and stress the need for improved climate adaptation planning. The researchers developed a statistical model using global rainfall and soil moisture data from 1950 to 2016 to examine these occurrences. They emphasize the importance of identifying areas at risk for this weather seesaw to aid disaster preparedness and resource allocation.
As climate change progresses, increased frequency of such events is anticipated. The research also points to examples like California in 2017, where floods followed a prolonged drought, causing extensive damage. A follow-up investigation will seek to determine the role of climate change in this increasing frequency of extreme weather events. The study was supported by NOAA and other institutions.
