PAGASA has warned that the Philippines could experience extreme weather events as El Niño is predicted to develop between June and August, with a 92% likelihood. Initially weak, El Niño may intensify, leading to prolonged exposure to its effects. Early stages could see heavy rains due to overlapping with the southwest monsoon, increasing flooding risks, particularly in low-lying areas.
While fewer tropical cyclones are expected later in 2026, those that do form could be more intense due to warmer ocean conditions. As El Niño strengthens, rainfall is anticipated to decline, especially in Luzon, where below-normal levels are likely by October. Dry spells could begin by November, with prolonged drought conditions highly probable by early 2027. The peak dry season months might also see extreme heat if El Niño persists.
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